Frightening Chart – Mutilation Woo-Woo – ExPat Report

Not our objective to get into the “Doom Porn” business.  Rather, we suffer the illusion of remaining rational while the world of zombies comes along… Frightening Chart Having “invented” our Aggregate view of markets in the rubble of the 2000-2003 Internet Bubble blow-down, and enjoyed some profits using it in the 2009 Housing Bubble bottom, we see another series of warnings for the period ahead now. While there is little likelihood of the market dropping precisely …

Read more

The Velocity of War

With the kidnap/ransom of a major pipeline system, time we reconsider our “everyday perception” of War. Must it always be run at the same speed?  And, if that answer is “No!” (yeah, spoiler, right?) then how fast to foreign-called events have to be in order to rise above the perception threshold of a nation of idiots? Precisely the kind of thing Sun Tzu would have relished, we’re quite certain. First though, a few headlines including …

Read more

Painting the Tape – How Bad Could it Get?

Not to out the “secrets of intergenerational families” that really run everything, but just what does “Painting the tape” mean?  And, does it really happen? Some numbers to make the case.  and using the early futures pricing today from last Friday: The Dow was down a little over one-half of one percent (0.584%) The S&P 500 was down 1.8%. And the NASDAQ was down 3.828%. Painting the tape is what the market (ok, MAYBE with some …

Read more

On Ransom and Crypto’s Nightfall

Screams for dot-connecting and future-projecting are being (not surprisingly) being missed again by the Mainstream Media.  Clowns wouldn’t know their tuckus’ from Technicolor. Which Two Stories? #1 is easy-peasy: Cyber attack shuts down top U.S. fuel pipeline network (trust.org) with similar coverage in Fears of a gas price surge after ransomware attack shuts down America’s key fuel pipeline | Daily Mail Online. Fears, we would add, that are somewhat well-founded.  Gas futures were up 1 …

Read more

ShopTalk Sunday: Serial Failures Weekend

I know about accident chains having flown a hundred thousand miles, plus or minus a pee stop, in our own plane. Part of the F.A.A. WINGS program includes the study and understanding of “accident chains” and how to break them.  Prevents falling “out of the sky.” What’s not widely appreciated though is the accident chain’s evil twin:  Serial Failures.  Especially at home, especially when you’re rolling on a punch list before Ure’s spouse’s next hip surgery…. …

Read more

Cleaning Off My Desktop

It may not seem like a useful column headline, but there’re a ton of Post-Its all over the digital desktop. Important stuff – the kind that fits into modeling the future in a manner facilitating the making of money. So in addition to the ChartPack and the normal assortment of headlines, some of the more oddball but – who knows? – maybe useful as well… More for Subscribers ||| Not a Subscriber? SUBSCRIBE NOW! ||| …

Read more

Jobs: All the Gains were ‘Made-up’

Jobs:  The Hype, the Data and here’s the sausage. I had to put on my “eye muffs” this morning to filter out the BS about how “Economy expected to add one million jobs in April.” Well, bubba, here’s what really happened: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other …

Read more

Complexity Kills – the “Fragility Amplifier” & Crypto Woes

Although the markets are continuing to present “normalcy bias” numbers, the emerging – and long-expected – reality around here is that Nassim Taleb’s book “Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto)” was less than half-right. It’s a position I took a good number of years ago.  Mentioned on the Peoplenomics side.  But, mostly I shut-up when taking on sacred cows of the woke and happy-talk followers. Today?  Ure spouts.  Not because Taleb was wrong (as far …

Read more

A Few Scary Bets

We spend an exceptional amount of time focusing on the Future around here. With good reason.  Because the art of making money (or, at least losing as little as possible) is predicated on getting “some notion or aspect of Future” right.  And then making meaningful bets on it. Are there some “unconventional” things looming in the foreseeable future that we should all spend some time planning for?  You bet! Because while most people are working …

Read more

Trade Wreck, Divorce Bill, and Woo-Woo School

We have gone from a low-interest Monday to a “Things get interesting Tuesday” with events over the past 24.  Let’s begin the morning roll with: Trade Wreck People – mainly being sheep – are “conditioned” to thinking charts that go UP are telling us good news.  But when comes to the Trade deficit, no, they are not. From the body of this morning’s release? Exports, Imports, and Balance  March exports were $200.0 billion, $12.4 billion …

Read more

Markets “Kiss the Trend” – Replay of Last Thursday

Monday’s news flow sucks.  But that doesn’t mean we just sit around with our morning “cuppa” and idly pass the time. Instead, I pass the time arguing with myself over how much of my economic viewpoint I should keep for Peoplenomics readers and how much could be safely “teased” in public. Here’s the Answer A single chart view MAY hint at what’s ahead. This is much more plain that trying to figure out the Sixains of Nostradamus.  …

Read more